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Originally Posted by philcski
some thoughts:
race 3- I think #2 Exceeding is a virtual single. been running consistently better figures than any of these and returns to a level where he's been very tough (starts at 50k this year he's 3/4 with the loss being to Cost of Freedom/Bro Lo, who both would be 1/5 against this group.) Additionally he gets an ideal setup sitting off the early pace of Reality Now and Full Power Ahead. I'm against Reality Now off the long layoff shipping south, despite the good works- he'd have to run back to the 3 he earned at BM on the dirt despite shipping, layoff, pace pressure and added 1/2 furlong. I doubt Rogue Scholar will have much left in the lane but he's got a better chance at a better price.
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I don't think Full Power Ahead is going to be on the lead. Look at the past performances again and you will notice that the horse has not been on lead in any of his starts. You may be talking about Rogue Scholar being ridden by Rosario. He showed speed last time out, running 22.1 and 44.3.
I can't single the #2 though even if the fractions will be hot on the front end. The horse is 1 for 9 on the Hollywood track and it doesn't bode well him when he couldn't catch Sixcess with hot fractions. I could be wrong because this is the lowest class he has ever faced, but I am very leary of singling him. I will use him, just can't single.