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Originally Posted by Danzig
like i said, it's possible for all that i wrote to be the case. i also think that going wide cost the horse the win. BUT since he was a decided longshot, i doubt many are surprised he didn't win-but i'm sure the line to this thread would be much longer had rosario been on the fave.
but it's also possible that regardless of ride/trip, that horse wouldn't win. too often we've seen folks get hung up on the second place horse-that had he moved a bit sooner, he'd have surely won at the end. then they bet the horse back, and whooops-they see why the horse was a long shot last time out, and deservedly so.
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That is indeed the point and you make it extremely well. We will never know what would have happened because there are too many variables and it is unquantifiable how much benefit the continued momentum gave Obrigado and it is impossible to know if the hole would have closed up to the inside.
If his instructions were indeed to take the horse out around the turn, getting shut off trying to stay inside would have much more far reaching consequences than just that race.