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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Amberdevil in the 5th at CRC, is cheap but she's cutting back and, if ridden correctly, i.e. not rushed to stay with what figures to be a contested pace early, she just might get a decent setup. Of course, Ward is deadly in these situations.
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Fat Man, Nice going.
I strongly agree with your assessment of turf horses having success in turf sprints after two turn races. I follow turf racing very closely at AP and Haw and here's an example of how I used this same logic to produce a long shot winner.
Yankee Injunuity - Front runner on 8/16/08 at AP going two turns tired late, but held on for 2nd. On 9/20/08, again going two turns was forwardly placed and yielded late to finish off the board. On 10/13/08 at HAW he's entered in a turf sprint and goes off at 33-1. The same jockey (Ferrer) settles him towards the rear of the pack and makes a big late run. I have struggled with turf sprints, but this angle has produced some winners. I'll try to provide the videos of his last 3 races.
http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...8-08-16-race-7
http://arlingtonpark.com/video/race-...-09-20-race-10
http://hawthorneracecourse.com/live_.../081013-07.asx