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Aqueduct Race 3: One mile from the chute on the dirt and their are some value plays in this field. #2 - High Brass (C.Velasquez/A.Jerkens) will be the favorite and rightfully so after two tremendous efforts this summer. Jerkens has laid him off for the past three months and the workouts are not impressive, but the horse ran well coming back after a layoff in June. The value in this race lies with #5 - Counting House (Morales/Callejas). He ran impressively on the turf at Belmont in October and moves back to the dirt where he impressed on an off track at Belmont on the first of October. It is this horses fourth race in the last 47 days, and it showed in his last start. The work on the 12th makes him much more intriguing today as he didn't expend a whole lot on Halloween. #3 Bebob (Hill/Hushion) means business and will have something to say coming back less than 30 days after a strong showing at Belmont.
Aqueduct Race 4: We need to single somebody to make this ticket affordable and worth while so here we go with #2 - Brogue (Morales/Contessa) coming off of the turf to a 6 1/2 furlong race on the Aqueduct dirt which suits this horse well. The Tomlinson number on a wet track is 432 which is VERY HIGH. If the track still looks wet and it most likely will not have dried out completely with the whether this past week. Play this horse on all your tickets.
Aqueduct Race 5: I am not sure what to do with this race because the turf will most likely be off tomorrow so I am going to handicap it like it is going to be on the slop. #8 - Spicy Value (Morales/Bazeos) is a bigtime longshot play on the mud with a Tomlinson figure of 412. He will be my longshot play of the day. #9 - Prince of Iron (Maragh/Galluscio) has won four times in five starts on the mud and is the most likely candidate to get the prize on an off track. The consistency on the wet track is the reason why. At 12-1 morning line there is significant value with a wet track. If #2 or #2b get into this race they are absolutely contenders on an off track so use both of them. I would stay away from any big favorites here there seems to be a lot of value if they are not running on the turf.
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