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Originally Posted by Dunbar
-185 is odds of 100/185, or 0.54 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.54) = 65% of the time.
-236 is odds of 100/236, or 0.42 to 1. To break even, you'd have to win that bet 1/(1+0.42) = 70% of the time.
So, the question is, do the other horses (besides Bernardini and BGC) have a combined 5% chance to win the race? If the other horses have more than a combined 5% chance to win the race, then the -236 on Bernardini vs BGC is the better bet.
For example, if each of the "other" horses' fair odds are 60-1, then it would be better to take the -236 bet vs BGC. (60-1 means about 1.7% chance to win, and 4 x 1.7% is almost 7%. That's bigger than 5%)
That's ignoring the chance that one or more field horses (besides Kip) scratches, however.
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I think what I wrote in that post has been verified by the line movement at Pinnacle. Both Bernardini matchup lines have moved, but the line vs BGC has moved much more.
Bernardini is now -193 (previously -185) to beat the Field. But he is -281 (previously -236) to beat BGC. The bettors have been jumping (more) on the matchup vs BGC. The current odds imply an 8% chance of one of the other horses (besides BGC) finishing in front of Bernardini. I think that's more realistic than the 5% chance that was implied from the odds last night. I think the actual chance is probably bigger than even 8%.
--Dunbar