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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin
If Bernardini keeps running the way he's been running running, you're not going to get any kind of price on him in the Classic. With Lava MAn in the race, maybe Bernardini will be 4-5 instead of 3-5. Lava Man won't get much respect. If anything, he will be an overlay. Every square in the world thinks that he can't run anywhere except for California. It's actually pretty silly. He ran two bad races last year after he was knocked out. Nobody knows if it had anything to do with being away from California. He lost by about 20 lengths in New York. Even if he is better in California, it's not by 20 lengths. He obviously didn't have it that day. He wouldn't have won that day if he ran in California in an allowance race.
Lava Man will be the overlay in the BC Classic, not Bernardini. I'm not saying that LM is as good as Bernardini. He's probably not, but I can't say that for sure. LM ran some freakish races. That turf race that he won by 8 lengths was awesome. His Gold Cup race last year last year was incredible. He has run some races that were very bit as frakish as Bernardini's races. The reason that I still would favor Bernardini over LM is because LM's last couple of races have not been quite as good as some of others. In addition, he's had a lot or races. I can't expect him to fire every time. Bernardini is fresh and is not overraced and that gives him a big edge IMO.
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Every year it seems at this time there is a "dream matchup" on the horizon, horses headed to the BCC that the public is split on...which is better? So seldom do they both make it there...it is my greatest hope that both continue to win impressively and enter the starting gate with this same argument (who is better) still raging...it would be great for the sport! It's hard for me to get too excited yet though...still a long way to go! I love the story of Lava Man and think he is grossly underrated...time and time alone will tell!