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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I guess The Travers will play a huge role in who wins this award. If Bernardini wins, I feel he is in the cat bird seat to win this award. If BC wins then I think it is a complete toss up. If neither wins, then it leaves Barbaro as the leader. What is unusual about this year is that Barbaro is constantly in the news. If he was just retired then we wouldnt here much about him. This means, his performances will still be in the judges minds. Maybe the sleeper is Showing Up. What if this hose goes on winning and capturing the BC Turf...do you dare give the award to a turf horse? I think you would have to if BC and Bernardini loses the Travers and doesnt go on to defeat older horses. Does BC and Bernardini need to just win the Travers and perform well in the BC Classic to win? I dont think that is enough to beat Barbaro or Showing Up. Should be interesting to see how things unfold. But it is hard to ignore Showing Up even though he is a turf horse.
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I suspect it's going to go like this:
If Bernardini wins the Travers and beats halfway decent older horses later this year, he will be the 3YO champ. If he doesn't, Barbaro will.
I consider it highly unlikely that Showing Up would win the general 3YO championship no matter what he does on the turf. Barbaro beat him with ease in the Derby; I personally would be uncomfortable assuming that Showing Up is superior to Barbaro. Besides, considering that a horse like Manila - who had won United Nations by this time in his career and went on to close out 1986 with a six-race winning streak, including the Turf Classic and BC Turf - could not beat Snow Chief (one classic win, no wins past May) for the 3YO championship does not suggest to me that Showing Up, who assuredly will accomplish less, should.