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Originally Posted by The Bid
You think Tiago beats Curlin on the dirt? Tiago would be lucky to beat me on the dirt
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That Tiago finished third in the race was not beyond the realm of possibilities. He had run several figures (many Ragozin "3"s) that could put him on the board in this race.
The question is why did Curlin regress in this race? Was it solely the racing surface? Was it the effects of a long two years of racing, especially after a trip to Dubai and back? Was it a premature move by Albarado? None of us can say for sure. The fact is that this was by far the best field that Curlin faced all year, and he didn't get the job done.
Finally, while it is questionable that either Raven's Pass or Henrythenavigator would have contested the Classic had it been run over a conventional dirt track, their pedigrees (by Elusive Quality and Kingmambo) would have been far more suited to a conventional dirt track than the pedigrees of the Euros (by such sires as Galileo, Danehill, and Sadler's Wells) that flopped in the Classic in recent years. They were legitimate Grade I horses that ran well. If they were able to transfer their form to a dirt surface (like a Giant's Causeway), the result may have very well been the same.