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Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing
If the BC was held in California this year, i would say that Lava Man would have a solid shot at winning the Classic and being HOY. But,Lava Man is NOT the same horse outside of California and that has been proven on multiple occasions.
Plus, he likes it tight ad fast and I just know Churchill Downs surface too well to think that he will have an advantage......that stretch is one of the longest in North America and they will make him go faster than 47 for the half-mile in the Classic. As a matter of fact, he won't even make the lead in that race...There will be some kind of cheap speed like always.
I don't like Lava man AT ALL whe and if he comes to Churchill Downs....especially if he is an overlay like he figures to be. I respect and admire the horse but I just don't like him in there, and I think Bernardini is simply a far greater talent.....he's just a better athlete than Lava Man IMO..
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Lava Man had valid excuses as to why he didn't run well when he shipped. This is also a completely different animal from last year. He is incredibly consistent this year. You are right about the Churchill track though...I didn't take that into consideration. I still think that Lava Man absolutely has a chance to hit the board especially if he isn't tired. He also has proven that he doesn't have to be on the lead to win the race. He just needs to be near it. I mean, face it, besides Bernardini, we don't exactly have any world beaters in this year's BCC. I acknowledge the fact that Bernardini is a complete freak as I said in my post above and many other posts. However, it is horse racing, and anything could happen. I will say this...If Bernardini fires, he wins for fun, but he may not fire.