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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Watch all her races, she hasn't got there in time everytime. Those two extra horses could easily be the difference.
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I'm not sure I agree that she won't go through an opening. You probably won't ever see her try to because her jock likes to take the overland route. She just got beat in her debut on the head bob, looked like she hesitated as she caught the frontrunners.
In her 2nd start, a Grade 2 race, she was up a bit closer than in her previous. Was that of Smith's choosing or was she just a little sharper 2nd time out (maybe we can as the Wiz about that)? I don't know, but either way it seems to have blunted her stretch rally in the only race she was soundly defeated. Also, the stretchout in distance is in her favor.
Smith employed the sit back, loop the field, and inhale them down the lane approach (that he's very comfortable with) in the last pair and has two Grade 1 wins to show for it. I don't think he'll be changing that plan in the BC, so the only thing she'll have to overcome tripwise is moving a bit wide into the home stretch; her main obstacle will be running into a flat out faster filly if there is one.