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Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay
If Lava Man goes 47 or over for the first half, then they are going to have a very hard time catching him. His last quarter of a mile in the Whittingham was unbelievable. 22.9 seconds. I know that it was on turf, but the horse consistently runs very fast last quarter of a miles on the dirt too. If he runs a race like he did in last year's HGC, the horse is going to be very tough to beat even with that monster Bernardini in the race.
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If the BC was held in California this year, i would say that Lava Man would have a solid shot at winning the Classic and being HOY. But,Lava Man is NOT the same horse outside of California and that has been proven on multiple occasions.
Plus, he likes it tight ad fast and I just know Churchill Downs surface too well to think that he will have an advantage......that stretch is one of the longest in North America and they will make him go faster than 47 for the half-mile in the Classic. As a matter of fact, he won't even make the lead in that race...There will be some kind of cheap speed like always.
I don't like Lava man AT ALL whe and if he comes to Churchill Downs....especially if he is an overlay like he figures to be. I respect and admire the horse but I just don't like him in there, and I think Bernardini is simply a far greater talent.....he's just a better athlete than Lava Man IMO..