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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't think so Danzig.
Judging by the way money poured in strong for Obama for no obvious reason - and than within hours of the pregnancy being announced - shited back strong in favor of McCain ...
That pretty much suggests to me that a few bettors knew the dirt (5 month pregnant 17yo daughter) on Palin before it got out - and they tried to take full advantage thinking it would be something that would sink an underdog Republican candidate.
I don't think now the pregnancy will have much impact on how people will vote - but it has a huge impact on the odds at a stage when it was private information that hadn't come out.
The Pentagon wisely wanted to establish an exchange betting market on future terrorist attacks for a similar reason.
Not only are markets more accurate than polls - but when people have information that the overwhelming majority of the public doesn't have - they can try to exploit that edge.
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...54c0a9659c8b63 |
ok, i was looking at it more in terms of the campaign and votes, not for betting and the odds shift.