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Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html
Poll after poll shows that state is virgin tight. Don't you have a Democrat running away with the senate race? This is the one state where the "Black vote" could make a difference, because it is (for sure) very close.
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Yeah....Mark Warner is killing Jim Gilmore in the polls here. Gilmore (Rep) was one of the more inept Gov's in the history of the Commonwealth. Warner (Dem) suprised me and turned out to be a great leader for Virginia during his term.
All that is fine and dandy, but I still don't see Obama carrying Virginia. There is too big of a rural vote throughout the Commonwealth and many of those people are gonna have a VERY hard time punching that ticket on election day for a black man. It's the same thing when Doug Wilder (black man) was elected Gov of Virginia. Every poll from here to eternity had him with an insurmountable lead...it was a given he was gonna win. He only ended up winning by a few thousand votes. So what people tell pollsters and what ticket they end up punching when noone else is looking does not always jive.
McCain picking Palin will carry him a long way in Virginia. A woman that hunts and that has a son and nephew getting ready to be deployed to Iraq...the men and women throughout the rural areas will identify with her and cling to her as someone that will look out for things that mean the most to them. They resist change a great deal and there is not alot for them to identify with when it comes to a Ivy League black man and a pompous know it all from the Northeast.