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Originally Posted by hi_im_god
"That is a simple view however the real world is more complex."
simple is usually right.
"The Russians dont have much refining capability but the chinese have plenty of money to build refineries. That alone means the Chinese will be paying less."
minus the cost of building infrastructure.
"Since Russia isnt a member of Opec they can produce what they want and sell it at whatever price they deem fit."
not true. if i can buy gas at 3.50 from opec or 3.75 from russia, i'll buy from opec. same for the rest of the world.
"If Chinese demand continues to rise, in theory they can buy the same amount of Saudi oil they are now and get the rest from Russia."
no if. chinese demand will rise. but the price will be the same regardless of the source.
"Obviously if they stopped buying OPEC oil it would have an effect but they will never totally depend on the Russians and I dont believe that the Russians can produce nearly enough."
that's wrong. if they stopped buying opec oil because they were taking russian oil off the market, it would have no effect on the global price. there is just 1 big barrel of oil left in the world.
"But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us."
russia would be happy to have an ally against the future superpower to the south. we just need to stop being led by clueless fools and we'll be fine.
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Obviously everything is hypothetical but you have missed the point. If Russia and China form a strategic allaince based upon oil, that is bad news for us. The russian oil that we are speaking of is currently not on the market because it is stuck in western Russia with only a small capacity which is sent by railroad which is a bad way to send it. With a pipeline directly to China it can be sold at a discount to the chinese because it still will be more economically feasable to sell to them than sell overseas simply because of the cost of delivery. Personally I dont think they will ever join forces in a military sense simply because of the egos involved. And Venezula and Russia are not comparable situations. Blaming any of this on our current administration is silly unless you want to start with the administrations of FDR on. You do recall that cold war thing right?