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Originally Posted by Kasept
Think so? I get the impression, and from PMs, that he's trying to play and learn. Having had a lucrative first week personally, I'd like to see him do well.. but he has to be at least mildly reactive to situations to adjust and create as needed... Fact is, with even the most simple adjustments, like the one above and with Gales' logical W-PL bet amounts, he'd be well ahead after Week 1.
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I don't think there is a handicapper in the country that could show a profit betting 2/3 of your BR in the place pool and 1/3 in the win pool on vlaue picks.
The idea on a value pick is for the horse to win if the most likely horse fails to win, it is not for the value pick to run 2nd.
The idea behind a value pick ontheoutside is to catch those nice high win prices. Too many times when a longshot wins and a heavy favorite runs second , you don't get rewarded eneough in the place pool for beating the favorite!!!
Yesterday if you had bet the next likely horse that Steve had posted and folowed my method of 40 W 20 P you would have won an additional $208.
The additonal $200 dollars is over and additional 300+ % to your bankroll. Please tell me you understand where my math is coming. If you don't understand the math my friend , then please please don't bet the horses.
Are you up in Saratoga Ontheoutside?? If you are stop by the barbuque and i'm sure they can show you on paper what I mean , Steve is very busy but maybe BTW can take the time to go over the math with you - good luck