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Originally Posted by SentToStud
If Commentator was 20-1 in here, I'd bet every dollar I could afford to bet on him to win.
He's obviously an exciting, fast horse but he's got his share of physical problems and he hasn't won going 2-turns or over a mile in three years. So, I will bet against every horse I see that fits this profile, especially at a short number.
And while he ran great in the Met, if the race had been an eighth longer, he quite possible have got beaten for 2nd by Lord Snowden.
To me, I'll bet the race because it has two horses I feel strongly about. Notional, who I expect a big race out of and Commentator, who I think is likely not to run 1-2. To me, the real money in the race is in the exacta.
I would place Commentator's chances of running 1-2 in here at about 40% and his chance of winning at about 25%.
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How many such races has he ran? Was that by design, because they wanted to keep him in shorter races......or by necessity, because they didn't think they could keep him together long enough to finish such a race? I think it was the former. When last seen trying this game, he was beaten in a tag team effort by Dutrow but right before that, he'd beaten the future HOY St. Liam.
I'll agree with you that depending on the odds, he may be a play against horse but forgetting about the odds and picking the horse that I think is most likely to win the race, I think he's the one that fits that bill.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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