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Originally Posted by eurobounce
Pletcher is the most successful trainer in the game today. But every trainer always comes down from the top. Pletcher is still young and has many more years of training to go. But what will be the reason for his demise? Lukas was the best there was in the 80's and 90's and we see where he is at today. So, what do you think will be the cause of Pletcher's fall? Like Lukas, I think once is assistants go on their own then he will hurt a little. I also think that perhaps burn out will play a role as well. What do you guys and gals think.
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First of all, I think Lukas was really only on top for less than 10 years. Off the top of my head, he did great from about 1984-1992 or so. He is really the exception to the rule. Training is not like sports where guys have a great career that lasts for 10-15 years. Guys will often train for practically their whole lives. Guys like Frankel and Mandella have been doing great for over 25 years. You have guys like Whittingham and Stephens that were on top for over 40 years. Training is something that guys can do for a really long time.
There are some people that suspect that Pletcher may be cheating in some way. I have no idea whether he is or not. Assuming that he is not, I think that he will be around for a very long time. On the other hand, if he is cheating then his great run could end at any time. Actually, even if he does have some type of unfair edge and that edge ended tomorrow, he would probably still be near the top of the standings for a few more years because he's getting such good horses. That's kind of what happened to Lukas. I think Lukas only had his really big edge in terms of pharmacology up until about 1990 but he was getting such good horses that he stayed pretty hot for another 2-3 years before he started to really cool off. If you have enough success at one time, that can carry you for a really long time. As poorly as Lukas does these days, he still gets really good horses because people remember how well he used to do.