[quote=Bigsmc]I am a "feel" bettor. If I have a strong opinion that the sequence is going to produce some prices, I will gladly put in a $144 ticket. If I find I don't have strong opinions, I'll keep it under $50. If I have very strong opinions on a single or two (or three or four), I may play a small ticket and hit it multiple times.
It also depends on the track I am playing and my track record at that track with P4's. I do not get crazy with tracks that I know I don't do well at. This goes back to the record keeping discussion.
The big payouts come when that obvious single (or two) is upset.
Probably the most important statement in the thread as the more upsets of heavy favorites there are in a sequence whether it is a P3-P4 or P6 ....
1) The higher the payoff and 2) The more likely a strategy that does not play a caveman ticket to some extent will not cash that sequence.
For instance if you are playing the "A"" B" "X" approach and you get 2 or 3 bombs or $20 or more win payoffs they are probably not the most logical or chalk. By spreading out in a sequence that is unlikely to go to favorites, you allow yourself to cash a big one but if truth be told you probably should play more than a single ticket by the "Exotic Betting" philosophy to cover your bases but likely get smaller return so you don't invest heavily and have the sequence pay poorly. A very loose rule of thumb for myself is to invest 2/3 of my money caveman looking for the big score with a third invested in the other strategy.
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