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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
terrible value / tempting gamble
say the horse has a 90% chance to show
hit% = 90
payout = $2.10
Value = .95 (lose 5cents on the dollar over infinite # wagers)
a fair 3-1 shot going off at 6.5-1 offers TWICE the value
hit% = 25
payout = $15.00
value = 1.88
Bridge Jumping is a losing long term investment.
However you do have a 90% chance of getting 5% interest on your money.
For some that would be a tempting Gamble.
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And i dont disagree with the math at all IF the horse ONLY had a 90% chance to show. See the point?
There are given scenarios where the horse is much better than 90%. Of course, this is subjective.