Here are some thoughts on the sequence:
Race 4
DOREMIFASOLLATIDO is as close to a single as you're going to get on the whole card. This gal was bet hard first time out and ran a very strong race. Considering how much James Jerkens trainees move up with experience, she should roll here. The only one who I'd give a chance to is #2 NOT A PEEP, who's by an A+ debut sire and an unraced mare.
Race 5
The most wide-open event by far. I detest ADMIRAL BIRD and would never use him on any tickets as he's likely to suck up a ton of money and disappoint once again. GOOD PROSPECT is a tad interesting as he was horribly spotted after winning a N2X last summer. He's back at that level again and Leah G is working him sharply. Both of the old-timers QUANTUM MERIT and CONTINENTAL REINS seem to be rounding into form but are obviously YEARS removed from anything positive. MY MAN LARS is returning off a break but Weaver is solid with these types and this guy ran into some sharp horses last year and encountered trouble just about every time he went to the post. He's going to be 15-1 or more and will kill many Pick 6 tickets.
Race 6
This is a two-horse race. CAESAR BEWARE and KING RUSH. The former was overbet last time out after winning with a very good trip in late May. He should rebound today if Coa can save a bit of ground since there's plenty of cheap speed. KING RUSH looked like the winner just outside the eighth pole last time out then flattened out a bit but that was a considerably stronger field than this
Race 7
I would never, ever use BARONESS THATCHER here who is a hanger that hates to win. She was lifeless last time out while seriously regressing off the strong effort on Derby day. She should bounce back here but would have to improve a ton to contend for the win. The same goes for LOOKY YONDER who is going to move back significantly after running two top figures. RITE MOMENT, WILD GAMS, and ANY LIMIT can all win in my opinion and even WINDY deserves a shot at a price as her trainer scored with a runner off a long layoff on Wednesday who had sharp workouts at the Spa.
Race 8
They're all running to beat LUCKY ISLAND here who has found lasix to be a wonder drug. He was the easiest of winners against a crappy field in the Bold Ruler, but it was his third straight authoritative performance. Kiaran McLaughlin is very good when he has his horses pointed to one particular race and that's what he's done here. The speed should come from NOT FOR MONEY and/or TASTEYVILLE but the former got away with murder in the opening quarter-mile last time out and the latter has freaked twice on the goo. I'd be more inclined to take Tasteyville if you don't trust Lucky Island completely.
Race 9
E Z DOLLAR wouldn't be the worst longshot throw-in as she has a bit of turf breeding and is going 2nd off the layoff for John Hertler. SHAAMI has been a terrible disappointment but may have found her way last time, LAURIE'S LION should be moving swiftly early and UNBRIDLED REFRAIN can move forward coming back quickly for HAJ.
My ticket: 3 / 1,3,4,7,10,11 / 4,8 / 2,4,6,7 / 2 / 3,5,7,8,10
Good luck!
NT
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