Race 2 - I agree with you that this might be the time to bet Candy Rides. . . but I wouldn't be surprised if the Baffert/Pegram/Vindication turns out to be a freak. Also, if Kiarin's horse gets bet watch out - Macho Uno is 6/18 this year with FTS for a $4.21 ROI. I respect Dutrow's FTS record and his horses certainly have a chance, but I'll probably play against whichever one goes (the 2B looks a little better). Nothing about the Pletchers make me think 3-1 is warranted.
5 is probably the most likely but might be an underlay (if she was dead on the board I'd probably avoid her, too). . . 6 and 7 look like the value.
Race 4 - Tougher race in my opinion. . . I feel forced to use the Pletcher. . . The 2's workout pattern is too light for me - may need the race - and it's tough to get a read on Read the Footnotes (0/3 so far with his starters). I like the 3 better than the 1 out of the two Awesome Agains but I'm not crazy about him. The Iwinski horse has some bullet works but a bad debut trainer. . . Forest Wildcat's a very good debut broodmare sire, though. Who knows what you're getting with Dutrow's horse - dirty if you ask me. . . The 6 looks like a typical sneaky KMc horse with those works. The 7's another tricky one. I'll pass on the 8 and 9.
The verdict: watch the board I guess - which sucks because I'd like to try to link these two races together in a PK3. . .
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