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Originally Posted by eurobounce
This race is perfect for the Europeans coming over. Really not much pace with the exception of The Tin Man. Europeans love looping along with a pack of horses and then sprinting to the finish line. The Tin Man might get some pressure from Cosmonaut but I really doubt it. Now with so many mid pack runners, traffic is going to be a huge issue. The key to this race (and most races) is going to be the trip the horses get. Therefore this becomes a jockeys race. I think the European horses have an advantage in this type of race. The two Europeans that I love in this race are Ace and even thought Rene is riding, I love Soldier Hollow. I like Cacique, but I am not going to get much value on him and I have him having an equal chance of winning with Ace and Soldier Hollow. So I will take the the two value plays.
NOTE: Dont be surpised to see The Tin Man go wire to wire.
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it may not be a perfect set up for the euros...they generally prefer a course with cut in the ground, and turfers are very, very picky about their ground. if it doesn't suit, they won't run as well..you can see some really good turf horses look like cheap claimers if they don't like the course.
and yeah, they love to lope early and close with a rush...if the tin man can set an easy, relaxed pace, affirmed will be moving back up the sires list. and THAT i would love to see!