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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I agree, for the most part, except for the bolded section. If Receipt either gets through or inside-outs entering the stretch, she wins for fun.
The problem I have, however, is that, at least lately, it seems that pretty much every horse that wins on the turf does so with a either a dream setup or good fortune, when the probable winner has trouble. Has me wondering whether any of these ****ers is able to win without getting lucky or a perfect trip. And, more importantly, how predictable the game really is.
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I don't think the winner had a perfect trip and I think she was the best horse in the race.
As you clearly understand, our job as a horseplayer is hardly to figure out the best horse in any race, it is the figure out the best horse that figures to benefit the most from the way the race will be run.