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Originally Posted by cmorioles
Supposed "key" races usually have a lot more to do with where the trainers spot the horses next out. I think these days, the only real edge is if you think a race is getting a speed figure that comes back lower than the horses are capable of running, for whatever reason.
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Right, there are so many factors involved, and as usual, people oversimplify them, mostly because they're lazy, and miss out on what's really good ( while falling prey to what is bad ).