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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I disagree, BTW. I think there is more downside to running him again. He is still the Derby and Preakness winner. And even if he doesn't run again, there's probably a 75% chance he'll be the 3-yr-old Eclipse winner.
His loss in the Belmont was so thorough that they can find some hairline fracture to blame it on and then retire him. I think there's much better than a 50/50 chance he never runs again.
If he runs again and loses again, then they're in trouble value-wise. (Unless they find that hairline fracture and blame both races on it!)
--Dunbar
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As I have told you before, owners and trainers don't make up stories about hairline fractures. It is totally the opposite. They will often tell you that there is nothing wrong with a horse when there is in fact something wrong. They will also sometimes downplay injuries. Sometimes they'll even say that the horse has a bruised foot, when in fact he has something more serious.
But I have never seen or heard of an owner or trainer claiming a horse has a serious injury when he doesn't. When you are going to stand a horse at stud, you want people to think the horse was sound. The last thing in the world that you would do is say that the horse had a hairline fracture if he didn't.
I agree with you that BB will probably never run again. But it won't be beacuse of a made-up injury. It will most likely be because of his foot. By the time that foot is 100%, the year will pretty much be over.