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Originally Posted by Dunbar
I honestly would not take 5-1 on any horse in the race. Too many good ones.
There are a few I would love to have at 10-1, though. If Tin Man is close to that, I'll be on him. Same thing with Ace.
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Okay, I made a quick fair odds line for the race: Like I thought, I have no horse under 5-1.
English Channel 5-1
Tin Man, Cacique, Ace, Touch of Land 7-1
Soldier Hollow, Phoenix Ranch, Better Talk Now 10-1 (that's a wild guess on Phoenix)
Cosmonaut 25-1
Major Rhythm 50-1
Before bashing any of these assignments, make sure your final line adds to 100%. For example, if you think English Channel should be 3-1, then who are you going to raise? If you raise Tin Man to 10-1, it gets you less than half way to what you need. You'd have to raise him to 20-1 or raise another of the 7-1's to 10-1 for your odds line to add to 100%.
If you think English Channel should be 2-1, you'll have to do some major readjusting of my odds on several of the horses.
I'll bet Tin Man, Ace, and/or Touch of Land if any of them look to be 9-1 or better. (Even though I think fair odds are 7-1, that isn't good enough to bet. I need plenty of room for error.) I can forget about betting EC or Cacique--I won't see the odds I'd need.
My line might change depending on weather/course and any defections.
--Dunbar