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Originally Posted by miraja2
I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2.  |
I suspect that if you put together a fair odds line for this race, no horse would be lower than 5-1. It's hard to separate Cacique, English Channel, and the Tin Man. Ace is not far behind them, and there are several other horses that have a shot.
It's easy to think 4-1 or 9-2 looks good until you try to put reasonable numbers on the other horses' chances. This is especially true in an 11-horse field.
--Dunbar