I disagree with 5 deep in the third leg - I know Fat Man loved the 1 but if you don't have that kind of opinion the race looks WIDE open. . . You've got the 1 (who I didn't personally like because he was a 12-time maiden), the 3 who was a first timer for turf sprint specialist Linda Rice, the 4 - a Pletcher cut-back with a huge Tomlinson, the 6 who showed a lot of speed last time and then died - but that was on yielding turf and Coa stayed, the 7 who was another hanger but had run very competitively in similar spots, the 8 whose a firster with some nice works from a trainer who has a great ROI with FTS, the 9 who was trained by Clement, and the 10 who didn't really run at all in his first race but now he gets blinkers and lasix.
That's 8 horses - not to mention that the odds-on favorite in the last leg finished last - a horse that many people probably singled or considered a stand-out.
The bottom line is that there's no reason to get greedy when you've already found great value - you have a free winner at 10-1!
Let's say that god/Andy Beyer (is there a difference?) told you that Emotival was definitely going to win - not just that he should win or that his odds didn't reflect his actual chances of winning. You have $500 and no knowledge of the rest of the order of finish or of how the other races will play out. You do, however, have access to all the handicapping materials you normally use. How would you use the $500?
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