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Originally Posted by Scav
As far as your comment on the P4 is concerned, the power of having a $20 winner IN THE FIRST LEG of a P4 is HUGE. The first leg has the most information available for the uninformed.
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I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.
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Originally Posted by Scav
As far as I am concerned, a P4 is a must play there because of the potential to spread in the other three races, and the LARGE potential of a p4 payout. With a win wager, you are maximized at a $20 payout on that win wager, on the P4 play, you can really make a huge score.
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The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.