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Originally Posted by MISTERGEE
first race at bel cheap claimer ran 89 raw so was it that different first to last?
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The winner of the first had run his last three races with Beyers of 67, 61, and 60 with a last 10 top of 77. Now the last was a win, but he seems to be improving back towards that 77. He beat McCalmont by a nose, and that horse very consistently runs around 70. So I'd project a figure of around 71 for the race, meaning the track was fast by 18 points.
The last race was run with a raw figure of 99, a sorry off the turf contest for NY bred MSWs. The winner had one lifetime race where he ran well and earned a 67. The runner up is a pretty bad animal who ran a 38 in his lone start at 24 to 1. The 3rd place horse is a terrible maiden, Another Hades, destined for Finger Lakes. He is an up and down type in his 10 races, and when he runs well he tops out in the mid 60s.
The winner beat Another Hades by 5 lengths, which is about 12 points. If you assume he ran his best, which is a stretch, the winner projects to improve about 10 points to a 77, which is pretty reasonable. That means the track was 22 points fast, or four points faster than the first race. The Beyer guy changed the variant 6 points, and it makes sense to me because I doubt AH ran his top.
Of course, there are other races in between to consider as well, but this post is long enough already to make the general point.