they will not beat a 100% sound big brown but if he has any foot problem a 12f race will take the toll on them. he is very beatable in a 12f race if there is a horse in there that wants to run 12f. casino drive probably could pick up the pieces if big brown goes backwards in the stretch. somebody in that race is going to be a birdstone or jazil. not very talented but at a competitive advantage in a 12f race. casino drive appears the most likely candidate if he runs a solid peter pan.
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