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Originally Posted by pgardn
I will give you one. I have given others, its a big list.
1. You have no flippin idea the size of the pool. Therefore you have no flippin idea what the reward will be. Example. I won a pik 3 this year that paid more than the same overlapped pik 4. Did anybody know there was a discrepancy in the pool so they could bet it? Hell no. There is no risk v. reward determination because you do not know the reward.
If you want more I will go on at a later time. Got lots more on the pik bets. By the way, lets not get this confused. A pik 4 bet is ONE bet on 4 races. Dont falsely assume someone is going to play the same 4 races separately, as you have already done in your example. You have already made a huge ASSUMPTION that someone is forced to play those 4 races.
And dont think you can accurately estimate the payout by taking the odds of the 4 winners and multiplying them.
And yes I occasionally play pik bets because it is FUN and challenging to arrange a ticket that is not too costly and has a chance.
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Pool size: history gives us a pretty good idea.
Payouts ARE unknown. Experience is a guide. Experience tells me that I want no more than 2 favorites or the payout will disappoiont. If you can accurately predict downstream favoritism-- which I think I can, this software can help avoid low payouts.
I have never assumed that you have to play any race. I only play P4's that have races that my data tells me I can handicap. I avoid them if there are maiden races (which I suck at) or I can't figure one race out. My general guide is to limit the number of runners seriously used in a race to (starters/2)-1.