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Originally Posted by Linny
These fillies may not be much bit they don't have to beat much either. I think that alot of the problems could be solved by adding AE's.
Long term I'd prefer the weighting of earnings so 3yo and route earnings count more than 2yo or sprint earnings. As the threshold has gone up (about $200k this year) we are seeing colts without a win this year (Z Humor, Anak Nakal) keeping out horses like Big Truck (G3 win) Bob Black Jack (2nd in G1SA Derby) etc. I'm not crazy about Bob Black Jack but he was 3rd in the San Felipe and 2nd in the SA Derby. That's not dreadful yet he's still outside. (I won't go near DoC because I agree with his owner that serious errors were made. He should be in.)
The rising "minimum" graded earnings may force trainers to actually race these colts in the future. Case in poiunt: Atoned. I was not a fan of this horse last year but he ran well in the Remsen after nearly falling. Pletcher maps out a 2 race schedule for him despite the fact that he had only $40k in 2yo graded earnings. The first race is the TBD which was already the announced return race for War Pass. Not being able to foresee WP's debacle, this race as the look of a "give him a race" effort, hoping for 2nd and about $60k. WP flounders but Atoned runs well for 2nd any how to a horse who was well back of him in the Remsen. Atoned is bred for a route and may have needed the return, after all I doubt Todd had him cranked hard for a race in which he figured he was running for place. His next stop is the quirky Hawthorne track. Kind to speed and favorable to certain horses for course the closing Atoned has no shot. Like DoC's folks they probably figured that the Ill. Derby was the easiest of that round of preps and with $500k up for grabs it looked like a good spot. WRONG. Now, Recapuretheglory is in you Atoned is out, way out. Had they run third in the Wood he'd have earned $45k more. Out of desperation they plunk him in the Lexington 2 weeks later. He hates the Poly and since Todd's horses are coddled and he's not used to running on 2 weeks rest.
I am not saying he was the Derby winner and was kept out but Atoned had the look of a colt who could have developed more. Why wait for the TBD with a colt who carries so little in 2yo earnings? Why plot a 2 race course where one stumble may cost you a Derby berth? He went 9f at 2 so why not run in allowance prep and then a GP stakes like the FOY? Why not prep in a graded race like the Hutchison? I think so many trainers are so focused on having a fresh horse for the Derby that they forget tp do what it takes to get them in the gate.
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it's why i have said more than once that 2 yo earnings shouldn't count. if filly restricted races shouldn't count according to some, then no 2 yo race should count. the race is for three year olds, so the best THREE yo's should be the ones getting in--not the ones who were best the year before.