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Originally Posted by Scav
I agree that the no shot argument is weak but Andy did have some viable points, I would like to hear why you think he has a shot.
I know you are a sheet user, and looking at his right now, it screams regression if you ask me. And a regression means he aint within the top 5 becuase there are several progressing horses in this race, more so then any year I can remember, they might be slow, but they are progressing
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The way I see it, in this terrible field, you should have to prove why somebody DOESN'T have a shot, and no one's done that with Smooth Air.
I've said why I like him, but if you wanna hear it again..
He's got figures comparable to anything anybody else (except for Big Brown and Pyro) has run, he's got a fine distance pedigree, and he's got ideal tactical speed. His small stature concerns me slightly, but at 25-1+, I honestly don't understand how anybody can be tossing him.
As for me being a "sheet user", I use the TG numbers, but I'm not like you in that I don't think there are these rigid rules for what's going to happen in the next race based on a horse's "pattern". Most of the time, I don't really care much what a horse's "pattern" is, I just want to see if he/she has run fast enough to contend. Smooth Air, according to Beyers and TG figs, has indisputably done so.