[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Split Rock

I posted this on another board but am wondering if anyone on this board can help me here.


Can someone help me with this? I'm more curious than anything.

In the 2nd race at Hollywood Park on Wed, opening day, it was amazingly clear that the #6 Smooth Performer was going to hit the board. So, I decided to calculate potential place and show payoffs with this horse. After calculating, I decided to bet $200 to show on it as the lowest payout would have been $2.60 if both 2nd and 3rd favorites came in with it. I felt one of them wouldnt so the payoff could have gone as high as $3.00.

Anyway, after the race was over, I calculated the show payoff assuming that Hollywood Park's takeout for show was about 23% on the high end.

If it is 23% takeout, the payoffs should have been:
6: $2.70 (reduced to $2.60)
4: $3.30 (reduced to $3.20)
1: $4.10 (reduced to $4.00)

Instead the payoffs were:
6: $2.40
4: $3.00
1: $3.80

The pools were:
Total: $18,588
6: $4923
4: $2595
1: $1638

If anyone is good at these calculations and can explain the difference, I would appreciate it. The only explanation I can see is the track takeout is 27.5% for WPS wagers and that would be robbery, if so.

Your pool figures are exactly what is shown at YouBet for that race. The takeout at Hollywood is 15.43%. Using the standard show bet calcs, I get:
6: $2.80
4: $3.60
1: $4.60

But the payoffs are what you posted, which are horrendously less. There are two possible explanations. First, YouBet could have screwed something up. Second, and the more likely explanation, there is something called "Net Pool Pricing", which unfortunately, makes it impossible to calculate the show payoffs from the pool info. It has something to do with incorporating foreign betting and different takeouts. You can Google it. Here's a pretty detailed explanation from the NYRA website: http://www.nyra.com/Belmont/Handicap...Wagering.shtml

NET POOL PRICING

The New York Racing Association is now calculating its pari-mutuel pools using a Net Pool Pricing model effective immediately. The 30 percent withholding tax on foreign winning pari-mutuel wagers was recently eliminated by the United States to enable the large amount of money wagered outside the country to be commingled. The change in pricing models permits countries such as Canada, England and others to commingle wagers into New York pools despite different legal deductions, takeouts, breakage and currency.

Net Pool Pricing allows each participating jurisdiction to abide by its mandated takeout rates without affecting the remainder of the network. For example, if a wagering site has a higher takeout than the host track, its payouts are lower. Conversely, a wagering site offering a lower takeout distributes higher payouts than the host track.

For New York fans, Net Pool Pricing will affect the way prices are calculated, but there will be no changes in prices under single-priced pools such as Win, Exacta, Trifecta and Pick Six. But, in multi-priced pools such as Place and Show, longshots may pay a little more while favorites may pay a little less. Fans will no longer be able to calculate prices from the pools listed on the toteboard because of the additional international variables that affect the algorithm.

Net Pool Pricing has been used successfully for years. American customers betting on the 1996 Breeders' Cup at Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto received mutuel information calculated by Net Pool Pricing. Woodbine, Arlington Park, and Emerald Downs have already moved to the Net Pool Pricing model.


NET POOL PRICING

The 30 percent withholding tax on foreign winning pari-mutuel wagers was eliminated by the United States to enable the large amount of money wagered outside the country to be commingled. For further expansion to occur, one of the requirements is to change to the tote calculating package that is most commonly used in the United States. This upgrade to Net Pool Pricing (NPP) enables U.S. tracks to deal with foreign tax rates and currency values.

Net Pool Pricing allows each jurisdiction participating in the pool to offer different retention rates (also known as takeout rates) than the host track should they elect or be regulated to do so. For example, if a participant chooses to use a higher takeout than the host track, they will have proportionately less weighting in the commingled pool than wagers with a lower takeout rate. Therefore, jurisdictions using a higher retention offer a lower payout to their customers and the remainder of the network is not affected. This also would work the other way should the participant use a lower takeout, and their respective prices would be higher than the host track.


FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Q: Why is NYRA changing to Net Pool Pricing in order to commingle wagers from Canada?
A: Since some countries such as Canada have different legal deductions, takeouts, breaks and currency, Net Pool Pricing is needed to combine their wagers and accurately calculate prices throughout the network.

Q: Will changing to Net Pool Pricing affect the way prices are calculated?
A: Yes, the algorithm used to calculate the prices is different under Net Pool Pricing. You should see little to no changes in prices under single priced pools such as Win, Exacta and Trifecta. Longshots tend to pay a little more and favorites tend to pay a little less in multi-priced pools such as Place and Show.

Q: Why can’t I hand calculate the prices from the pool values on the tote board?
A: Since Net Pool Pricing uses a complex algorithm to calculate the prices there are many other variables that affect the calculation of the price which are not displayed on the tote board.

Q: Has Net Pool Pricing Been Proven to Work?
A: Yes, Canadian racetracks have been using Net Pool Pricing since the Breeders’ Cup was hosted by Woodbine in 1996. Customers betting on Woodbine in the U.S. have already been exposed to this calculation method. Many states have since adopted Net Pool Pricing in their regulations including the RCI Model Rules.

Q: Is Net Pool Pricing more susceptible to minus pools?
A: Due to the nature of the algorithm used in Net Pool Pricing on a split pool such as Place or Show, a heavy favorite will not drive the value down on the remaining runners as much as it does using the standard pricing method. This may result in the favorite paying $2.10 and the other horses paying more, which is generally more favorable to the betting public. The negative break is then attributed to the wager and that association who bet down the favorite.

Q: How can pools from two different currencies be merged together?
A: Net Pool Pricing allows for pools in different currencies to be merged together by applying a daily exchange rate before the foreign currency enters the pools and again to the prices before being paid to the public.

IMO it sucks that we can't verify the odds from the info we have access to. Even with the explanation, I don't see why the payouts should be so much smaller in the race you bet.

--Dunbar