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Originally Posted by Linny
The post draw for the Derby is a joke. People play games, taking the spot at the outside of the main gate in the inside of the extra gate to get more room etc. Then a scratch occurs and they are shift anyhow. A random draw works for every other race, why not the Derby? From there, add AE's in graded earnings order. If scratches occur, the AE's are automatically outside. Remember, those outside posts have yielded plenty of on the board finishes and a few wins in the last decade.
The idea makes some sense esp as in this era, it's possible for a huge barn 9owner or trainer) to "stuff the entry box" then scratch all the "deadwood" leaving their best horse to run against 14 rivals rather than 19. Think Zayat. They could enter every one of their qualifiers then scratch all but say Z Fortune. This approach could be an effective way to get a shot field for a very strong frontrunner for example.
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One of the things that has always perplexed me about the Derby is the possibility of multiple entries by the same owner in the Derby to the exclusion of an owner with a single entry. If you look at the conditions of most of the other Derby Week stakes at Churchill Downs, they have language that prohibits an owner, in an oversubscribed field, from entering multiple horses to the exclusion of a single entrant from another owner, essentially forcing each owner to take his or her best shot if the race is oversubscribed. I don't understand why they don't do this in the Derby, unless they are specificially trying to have the rules benefit the large outfits.
If I recall correctly, a few years ago, Unshaded and perhaps one other were excluded when Dogwood and Godolphin (one of which was subsequently scratched, only making the situation worse) both had multiple entries. Seems like this is going to happen this year again with both Zayat and WinStar having multiple entrants while some owners will be excluded.