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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't think it's " lame " at all.....in fact I think it is just the opposite. I am trying to dissuade people from betting a horse that I believe has little or no chance and even at 40:1, and I think he will be considerably lower, is an underlay.
Perhaps I should " back it up ", and I will, but I don't offer my opinions unless I feel I can back them up....it's basically implicit and more than most I have probably earned that right. However, in a nutshell, while Smooth Air is a nice and talented horse, what he showed inarguably is that he will not get better as the distances get longer. He had an absolute dream trip and set-up in the Florida Derby, made what looked to be a winning move on the turn, and then had absolutely no finish. The only reason he finished second was that there were no horses of quality ( besides the winner ) competing that day. Any that may be better than him, Elysium Fields comes to mind, did not fire at all. Essentially he was second by default....just as Tomcito was third for the same reasons. Look how many were fooled by him.
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I hear what you are saying and I felt exactly the same way after the Florida Derby but the more I look through this garbage we are presented with as a Derby field and from watching all the preps that took place since then this horse is the one at long odds that keeps on looking better and better. After Big Brown and Pyro I can make as much of an argument for Smooth Air as I can for any other horse in the field. Hell, I think Anak Nakal has a hell of a chance at getting up for fourth or fifth and that horse would make Andromeda's Hero look like a speedster. There are two solid dirt horses with question marks and one Tiznow proven on the synthetics, and a bunch of crap in this race. I can go on every thread and give multiple reasons not to like every horse in the field and I'll be right on 19 out of 20 of them for the win and 15 out of 20 for running top five. So if you are so sure that Smooth Air has no chance before the draw then who do you like before the draw that you'll guarantee beat him? You want Tale of Slowkati? Pick a horse besides the top three, I'll bet you a few rounds at Siro's (or Clancy's if our wallets are light) on it head to head against Smooth Air.