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Originally Posted by Gander
I think Recapture the Glory is well near or even more than 40/1 come post time. The Illinois Derby isnt really all that well known. Especially to the guys who bet big on just this day like Kid Rock. Hes going to look at that race and be like, "I didnt even know there was an Illinois Derby." He beat a bunch of lizards that day. Neither him nor anyone in that field will see the top 10 in the Derby when its all said and done. He wont get away loose on the lead with Bob Black Jack either.
I initially thought 16/1 was too low for Cool Coal Man, but Zito has a huge fanbase, many of whom bet big on this race and they want whichever horse he is training. The other one is a turtle, so Cool Coal Man is their only viable option. Friends of his like Mickelson and George Clooney will probably plunk down 100K between them to win. If War Pass was in, Cool Coal Man would be closer to 40/1. Now Zito obsessors will make him in the teens.
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The winner of the Illinois Derby has gone off at:
2002: 21-1 (War Emblem, won)
2003: 6.6-1 (Ten Most Wanted, 9th)
2004: 24-1 (Pollard's Vision, 17th)
2005: 21-1 (Greeley's Galaxy, 11th)
2006: 5.5-1*favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint, 7th)
2007: 19.8-1 (Cowtown Cat, 20th and last)
All had similar credentials coming into the Derby as Recapturetheglory- I think you're underestimating the betting public's knowledge of the race.
And celebrity selections don't drive the odds when there's $50-75 million in the win pool...