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Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan
I predicted recapturetheglory at 40-1 rather than 25-1, and Monba at 20-1 rather than 13-1.
I would say that Gayego will be about 14-1 instead of 21-1 (I'm not touching either way) and I think Smooth Air will be in the 20's instead of 32-1.
Don't get me wrong I think it's a great list you made, I wanted to just add some of my opinions.
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Monba and Gayego are two very interesting possibilities in terms of their off odds. Monba, you have the Pletcher factor for but the average dirt form against. Gayego, you have an excellent overall form but a severely disadvantaged pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus somewhat lesser connections, even with Mike Smith riding. I could see you being right on both those, as if you just look at PP's and ignore the pedigree and connections, Gayego is the much better horse.
It's a fun and difficult exercise, because it really gets you focused on what the public will think rather than what YOU want it to be. Perhaps my hope on Smooth Air is 32-1 and I'm being too optimistic, he certainly could take more money that that.