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Originally Posted by Bogey
Hawthorne
R10 - MSW Turf
#5 High Approval (Ire) - Stidham takes off the blinkers for '08 debut. His 1st start he made a nice rally into a slow pace in Sept '07 at AP (turf) as the betting choice and then didn't care for the Keeneland synthetic surface in Oct '07. I fully expect him to handle this bunch and earn his diploma. ML 6-1 seems a bit unrealistic, but 3-1 or better and I'm taking the plunge.
Good Racing Luck
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I've been looking forward to this race. I'd find it hard to take the plunge on anyone in here at 3-1, so it's one that I'll just watch but there are a few interesting ones to watch in here.
Fire Brewed, who should be the favorite and definitely the one to beat, is a half to both Beta Capo and Alpha Capo -- both six figure earners and stakes winners on the grass. He's got some form to go on already, but I think he's going to turn out to be a pretty good one.
Denim seems better now than his turf tries last fall were and is a half to Arlington stakes winner Love Handles and Hug Me Hug Me, who if memory serves ran competitively in some local turf stakes too. He goes back on the grass for the first time this year and I think he'd be a huge steal at anything near his 12/1 ML price. IMO, he's the biggest threat to Fire Brewed and should be a decent price.
So regardless of the betting, there might be a few in here worth keeping an eye on.