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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.
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Where's your proof of that? Nakatani rode Colonel John last time and has ridden him in four of six starts. That doesn't sound like Gomez ditching him to me..
The horse is a winner with a versatile running style and awesome distance pedigree. As for his figures, if you take all synthetic numbers at face value, then I don't know what to tell you, and it isn't like 95 is far off what it'll take to win here. To me, the only one that has run a two-turn race significantly faster at three is Big Brown, because I'm not buying that AR Derby fig.
Do I think he offers value? Hell no. But if you watch the horse run, look at his pedigree and don't think it screams "Derby horse", then I think you're mistaken. I wouldn't bet him to win, but he's definitely one of the more likely winners.