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Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I think this thread further supports the notion this crop is crazy, wide-open and hard to figure.
Z Fortune could be cycling towards a new top. If the Oaklawn figure is a bit high (there was a dicussion about this), then he realistically could be cycling back to a new top.
The problem with these horses is when a horse does put in an good effort, people act as if they are allergic to it, because we have seen so many average races in the big events all spring long.
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I absolutely 100% agree with your 1st paragraph, last year we had the benefit of atleast seeing the major contenders run at CD in the BC juvie. Thus we got an idea how horses performed on the surface they were running on. With the advent of poly/cushion/synthetic tracks it just further muddles the derby selection process. If comparing preps was hard enough before.
I don't mean this in a disrespectful way but anybody making a derby prediction this far out without seeing horses work at CD (this will be invaluable resource) is purely guessing if you ask me. If picking the derby winner was hard before, it is close to impossible now. But with workouts it might just give a glimmer of hope.
The horse or horses I decide on will be based on the reports I read from DRF, Bloodhorse..ect..staff, as unscientic as that may sound. I can't think of a better way to attack this derby. I don't trust one prep with the exception of the Arkansas Derby at this stage.