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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I'm not sure Cannon - I don't pretend to be Lenny Friedman or Jerry Brown - but wouldn't Z Fortune be a big "bounce" candidate?
I don't have his sheet numbers - but he'd run Beyers of 87 and 82 in the Risen Star and Rebel - and soared to a 102 Beyer (with a very wide trip) that is a significant new top.
As I recall, when a 3yo with just six career starts runs a big new top, and has just three weeks rest between starts, he's a high percentage bounce candidate.
I know I've heard a few Ragozin Sheet experts (Hardoon) say that Big Brown actually has a good pattern going into the Derby. He was supposed to bounce in the Fla Derby - but made a slight forward move instead - and goes into the race with five weeks rest.
I'm not exactly one who buys into this stuff anyway.
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I'm not sure that Z Fortune ran a big top last out. He was pretty fast early in the year. I dont know how anyone can say BB's pattern is anything since he has run so infrequently to actually have a pattern