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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I keep hearing this....and I don't agree with it.
Let's start with the lifetime record of CJ's dam Sweet Damsel:
Dirt Sprint: 7-0-2-1 Earnings: $6,059 Top Beyer: 51
Dirt Routes: 12-2-2-1 Earnings: $26,897 Top Beyer: 82
Turf Races: 14-3-1-2 Earnings: $33,513 Top Beyer: 89
Basically, Sweet Damsel was a modest horse who strongly preferred running a route of ground and was slightly better on turf. She only sold for $9,500 as a yearling - I have no idea who trained and on what circuits she raced.
As for CJ's sire Tiznow - Great dirt horse for sure - but never tried turf and synthetic wasn't invented.
However, Tiznow has been a sensation synthetic track sire! Besides CJ, he's sired other synthetic lovers Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed. All of which also could handle dirt - but all slightly more effective on synthetic tracks.
From the clues we have to go on in the pedigree - I think CJ will appreciate the 10 furlong Derby distance.....but, I believe anyone who thinks he's bred to improve on dirt is reading his pedigree wrong. He probably will hold his synthetic form - that's my guess.
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Does he really need to improve given the trip that he is going to get in the Derby, he will be in that covented 5-10 part of the pack hopefully 2w-3w (rail is always garbage unless you are Borel who just seems to always get through)
Personally, I will be using alot of synethic horses on Derby Day, obviously I am going to go off prior dirt form also, but I think to just toss horses that have never seen dirt will be a large mistake.
What are CJ's odds on Derby day, if War Pass goes, War Pass is probably 7/1 given the distance questions, Big Brown is probably in the 4/1 stage, Pyro is in the 5/1 unless this weekend is crazy impressive, so could CJ be in the 10-12/1 range?