You can make an educated guess at putting a number on a trip, but not an accurate one. The "path's wide" approach has its shortcomings. It doesn't account for biases and the fact that many horses run better off the rail. Plus, the big downside for me is that you upgrade a horse who is coming off the pace and forced to take the wide trip to reach contention. These types will always be going wider than early speed that avoids going wide, and we all know early speed rules dirt racing.
Now the sheet guys are smart, really smart, but I think they oversell the value of the "number" when the real value of their work is their methodology of presenting it in sheet fashion and finding patterns for the horses and trainers. I've heard a lot of pro's talk about that being the case along with the fact that Sheet figures aren't bet as much as Beyers at many venues, so the prices are a bit better.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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