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Originally Posted by cakes44
Horses like Turf War, Z Humor, and Majestic Warrior...horses with no shot. There is NO value in taking "all others" in Pool 3. None.
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I guess that ends the discussion.
Nah.
I guess there's NO chance a surprise horse will emerge from the Blue Grass or the Arkansas Derby. (not to mention the chance that one emerges this weekend.) Zero chance.
We are talking about odds that will probably be somewhere between 14-1 and 20-1. For those odds to be fair, the horses should have a
combined chance of winning of around 5-6%. Five horses from All Others make it on average. So, if one legitimate 30-1 shot and one legitimate 50-1 shot emerges from the remaining preps, the All Others would have value even if the rest had an average chance of 1/200 of winning the Derby. There's zero chance of that happening, of course.
The fact that horses from All Others of Pool 3 have gone on to win the Derby in 2 of the 9 editions of Pool 3 must have happened in some other universe.
--Dunbar
fwiw, I don't have a strong opinion about whether there is value in betting All Others in Pool 3. I do have a very strong opinion about whether the All Others horses
could win the Derby. I'm sure, for instance, that I'd be all over it at 100-1, and I'd be confident there was huge value in that.