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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
For the typical SPEED oriented player this is an anomaly. Horses wiring the field as the way things should be is both counterintuitive and contrary to natural laws. In any reasonably related event, cycling, for example, for someone to wire the field, they need to be MUCH BETTER than the field. The same is true on fair turf courses and poly (excepting the mess out at SA for those early few weeks).
Horses that have had the advantage of drafting will have a better chance to win. More moves in a race means that the race has a higher likelyhood of falling apart. Do away with the wide-without-cover trip, that most US jockeys think is just fine, and you actually have competitive YET fair races. What you guys think is an unfair closers 'bias' is actually just about the fairest racing there is out there. And not remotely related to the 'bias' at AQU this winter (or that at KEE before poly).
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You make good points and in fairness to Keeneland the sample size of races is on the light side. Pace makes the race is not only a cliche but is a fact.
Your point about drafting makes sense and there are countless times that a horse will sit in 3rd or 4th within a few off the pace and edge outside in the stretch and blow by the tiring front runners.
In terms of the Aqueduct inner speed bias I do not believe it was there for the most part. I might be wrong about the lack of an extreme bias but I do know that the horses which ran this winter were the weakest I've seen in years who raced daily at a NY track.