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Originally Posted by Dunbar
Agree.
This is an important point that is often missed. The Beyer fig is supposed to simply reflect how fast the race was run. It is NOT supposed to contain any other info about trip, bias, weight, etc. I'd rather supply those adjustments myself than rely on someone else to do it. However...
As you and oracle point out, the "room for interpretation" in Beyer's figs can lead to error. The offered explanation from oracle's Summit of Speed example is pretty lame, unless the track was obviously drying out or getting sloppy. There have been some pretty big "adjustments" in some figs this year. The initial BSF awarded to a horse was changed substantially. This has happened with "big" horses like Bob and John. One wonders how many "errors" are not corrected when the horse and race are not so thoroughly dissected as Bob and John in a Ky Derby prep.
--Dunbar
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Well said, Dunbar. I am much like you in that I would rather the figures be objective instead of subjective. Let handicappers interpret how the figure was earned instead of adjusting the numbers to "fit" how fast the race was run. While I believe projection methods yield sharper variants, I still like to do some of the work myself. This has been my problem with grasping Thorograph all along. They may or may not have better figures, but it is very difficult for recreational players to interpret their figures because their are so many subjective factors. They strive to deliver the most accurate figures with wind speed adjustments, private clockers, and lengths lost, but you can't put a number on a trip.