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Originally Posted by Pointg5
I don't diss him, I have read all of his books and I respect him, sometimes his numbers are legit, sometimes not, there's room for interpretation, so they are not always going to be correct.
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Agree.
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One thing you have to remember with Beyers and he has a chapter in his book on it, How was the Figure Earned, that's more important than just running a big figure in my opinion. Was it a loose on the lead or did he battle through fast fractions or have a wide trip. I prefer Sheets and will defer to them in most cases, but they are $40 for a day...
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This is an important point that is often missed. The Beyer fig is supposed to simply reflect how fast the race was run. It is NOT supposed to contain any other info about trip, bias, weight, etc. I'd rather supply those adjustments myself than rely on someone else to do it. However...
As you and oracle point out, the "room for interpretation" in Beyer's figs can lead to error. The offered explanation from oracle's Summit of Speed example is pretty lame, unless the track was obviously drying out or getting sloppy. There have been some pretty big "adjustments" in some figs this year. The initial BSF awarded to a horse was changed substantially. This has happened with "big" horses like Bob and John. One wonders how many "errors" are not corrected when the horse and race are not so thoroughly dissected as Bob and John in a Ky Derby prep.
--Dunbar