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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
This was one of the races I talked about on Steve's radio show last Friday.
At the very end, Steve actually asked me for my "most likely winner" in the race as we were wrapping all 3 races up - and instead of answering his question, I ignored it and decided to tell how I felt was the right way to bet the race...and it was a good thing because the exacta paid $173.60 and the betting play I gave out paid almost 30/1.
Basically, King's Silver Son was just the 7th best horse on paper - he had a career lifetime top Beyer of just 80 and no buried form. However, he was a true hanging closer who was going to get the setup of a lifetime with Sacred Journey in the race. And, with He's Eze adding blinkers the stalker/mid-pack types get no breather.
I make the case that Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune are the likely winners of the race - but hopeless hanging longshot King's Silver Son will get a once-in-a-lifetime trip/setup.
As I said, there was only one way the race could be bet that I saw it - and that was by taking King's Silver Son and keying him 2nd in the exacta with the two likely winners (Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune) - and 3rd in the Tri behind those two.
A $2 exacta SS and ZF over KSS costs $4. A $1 tri SS and ZF over SS and ZF over KSS costs $2.
It's $6 per unit - and the exacta paid $173.60 - basically the same thing as hitting a 28/1 shot.
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This falls in line with exactly how I like to play, especially when I'm handicapping more on-the-fly. Who figures to get a good setup? Who figures to outrun their odds? Win? Not likely. But hit the board? You bet. It's a lot of fun.